Now is not the time to decide whether Bray stays or goes

There are a lot of reasons to be down on Oregon State football and its second-year coach, Trent Bray. But firing him during the 2025 season is not the answer to the problems.

Sure, UCLA fired DeShaun Foster and Virginia Tech let Brent Pry go after last week’s embarrassing losses, which dropped their respective teams to 0-3 for the season. I am not familiar with those situations other than what I have read, but my instincts tell me they are acts of desperation that aren’t going to turn out particularly well for either team the rest of the season.

This is not meant in defense of Bray, who has not done himself any favors with a number of lamentable in-game and, frankly, out-of-game decisions so far this season. What I am saying is that in-season firings of head coaches rarely make sense in college football. With only 12 games and the intricacies of offensive and defensive systems within a program, it is difficult to change course in mid-stream.

That is especially true at Oregon State, where Bray not only serves as head coach but also defensive coordinator. His dismissal now would necessitate replacing two of the three most important positions. That’s if an interim coach decides to keep offensive coordinator Ryan Gunderson.

It has been suggested that Robb Akey — special assistant to Bray and head coach at Idaho from 2007-12 — could be brought in as an interim replacement. Akey is a defensive guy, as is veteran Mark Criner, now serving as a quality control coach. Sure, they could fill in. Would we see a major difference in the Beavers’ performance? Doubtful.

As one former college coach tells me, “you are not going to reinvent the wheel during a season.” That is why summer workouts and August training camp are so important. Those are the times to begin to establish much of a team’s identity on both sides of the ball. There simply isn’t enough time in game week during a season to institute change in what players have been working on for months on end.

There are also financial considerations. A buyout of Bray’s contract would mean $3.6 million for the 2026, ’27 and ’28 seasons, plus a pro-rated bill for the rest of this season. That could be offset by Bray’s salary in his next job, but for a cash-strapped athletic department, it’s a load to pay off.

Let’s examine the situation. Oregon State came in knowing the season was front-loaded, with four Power Four opponents in the first five games. Optimistic fans were hoping for a 2-2 start, but in retrospect, that was a pipe dream. Say what you want about California, but it is a Power Four school that can recruit better talent than Oregon State, if for no other reason because it is a member of the ACC. The Bears — who by the way have started 3-0 — simply have more heft to their program right now.

The Beavers should be 1-3, but they got unlucky. Their dependable long snapper got hurt. The previously dependable backup suddenly choked on the pressure. The statistical disparity in the Fresno State game was staggeringly in favorite of the Beavers, but six errant long snaps handed the Bulldogs the game.

Oregon is a five-touchdown favorite in Saturday’s Civil War mismatch in Eugene, and Houston — 3-0 and with a bye week to prepare for their visit to Corvallis on Jan. 26 — will be heavily favored to beat the Beavers, which would leave them 0-5. After that, the schedule eases. Yes, Wake Forest is Power Four, but a beatable ACC school. If the Beavers keep the faith — “keep on grinding,” as veteran O-line coach Mike Cavanaugh puts it — there are some wins out there to be had.

The Dean of Portland Sports is now on BlueSky.

Cav’s position group will be one of the keys the rest of the season. False starts have been a major issue the last two games. That is at least partially on the O-line, but also may be due to Maalik Murphy’s long snap counts. The run-blocking was solid against Fresno State but couldn’t move the pile against the Power Four defenses of Cal and Texas Tech. That may be the case again against Oregon, but history tells me that Cav will have his group improved in that area as the season progresses.

I am among the many who have had issues with coaching decisions this season, which fall back on Bray. For instance, the decision to try to sit on the ball and run out the clock late in the second quarter with OSU sitting in good field position, two timeouts remaining and the Beavers ahead of Fresno State 15-14. “You’re trying to end the half with the ball,” Bray told me in explanation. “That’s the strategy there. You don’t want to give the ball back to Fresno State.” With momentum and the lead, a better way of thinking is, “We’re going to move downfield, get some points and increase our lead.” In other words, trying to win instead of trying not to lose.

There was the penalty for two players wearing the same number on a punt to start the Cal game, wiping away a three-and-out by the OSU defense and changing early momentum.

But the one that still has me shaking my head is the coaches’ reaction to the long snapping fiasco against Fresno State. In a column after the game, I suggested if worse came to worse, regular center Van Wells could probably handle duties.

Against Texas Tech, the powers-that-be — Bray and special teams coach Jamie Christian, ostensibly — indeed went to Wells. But they had punter A.J. Winsor stand only five yards behind the line of scrimmage instead of the regular distance of 12-15 yards. Winsor then would take one step and deliver a punt without any wind-up. A shorter snap that creates other difficulties.

The first one traveled 24 yards to midfield, setting up the Red Raiders for a short touchdown drive. OSU used the tactic for the entire game. Winsor later boomed a 58-yarder to get his average for five punts up to 39.6, but come on. With a week of practice to work with, that’s what they come up with? There is nobody else on the 105-man squad who can hike a ball 12 yards on target?

If the Beavers use the same strategy against Oregon — I have to think that won’t happen — I like the Ducks’ chances of blocking a punt or two, or perhaps Winsor kicking one into the back of a personal protector.

Bray’s paranoia about revealing injury information seems counterproductive. It is annoying to both media and fans, the latter of whom are the lifeblood of college sports with their purchase of game tickets and donations. Disclosing injuries is not a “competitive disadvantage.” Very little is kept secret between FBS programs. The next opponent is going to find out who is hurt, and with what injury, but also is going to prepare for the dual possibilities of the athlete playing or sitting out.

All Power Four conferences have injury report regulations, as does the NFL. With NIL funding, FBS players are no longer amateurs, they are professionals. The media is not asking for a detailed report on the injury; merely identifying the body part, with an estimate of how long the player will be out, would suffice.

Bray has painted himself into a corner with the declaration, “I’m never going to talk about injuries.” It would be wise of him to have a change of heart and move toward transparency.

Bray’s expletive about special teams blurted out during a TV interview at halftime of the Fresno State game was regrettable, but it came in the heat of a very bad moment. Some seem to think it is indicative of insufficient moral character. Coach Kirby Smart delivers a profanity-laced locker room speech — “Go out and f— their ass up” — before Georgia’s 65-7 beat-down of TCU in the 2023 national championship game, and everyone laughs it off. Sure, that was behind closed doors, and Bray’s comment wasn’t. Cursing is part of the vernacular in contact sports, though. Bray apologized, and I’ll bet he learned from it.

The outcome Saturday in Eugene will likely not be pretty for the Orange and Black. Oregon dropped a couple of notches in the AP poll after a routine 34-14 win over Northwestern. The Ducks probably won’t hold back on running up the score against the Beavers to enhance their standing in the running for CFP positioning.

Let me add, there is only one good reason for Oregon State to continue its Civil War football rivalry — money. I get that the Beavers need the payday. They and their fans, though, don’t need the aggravation of taking an annual pounding from a program with unlimited resources. As ex-Beaver great Mike Hass so eloquently put it not long ago: “We shouldn’t have to play them. They’re the ones who ran away from the Pac-12. Screw them. They left. We don’t owe them anything to play that game. They left the conference and left us to fend for ourselves. It’s more of an unfair advantage than it was in the past. I say let them go schedule Georgia or somebody.”

A lopsided loss Saturday doesn’t mean Oregon State’s season is hopeless. The record isn’t going to finish at 10-2 or 9-3, as some pundits predicted. (I said 7-5, and I was probably too optimistic). OSU coaches and players have to focus inward and cast a deaf ear to the criticism from both mainstream and social media. If they stay together and if injuries don’t mount at key positions, things will get better as the quality of opponent becomes more manageable.

It may be that the Beavers’ fortunes turn out so miserably that the best option for athletic director Scott Barnes at the end of the season is to dismiss Bray as coach. That won’t happen now with what would amount to a knee-jerk reaction. UCLA and Virginia Tech did it. That doesn’t make it the right move.

Oregon State football isn’t in the position it was in only two years ago in Jonathan Smith’s final hurrah. Bray and his staff aren’t recruiting to the old Pac-12, as was Smith. The new Pac-12 isn’t at the same level, and neither will be the quality of talent in the OSU program.

What fans can hope to see is the Beavers achieving success in a new “niche” — something like Boise State has done in the Mountain West. It’s not unreasonable to expect that Oregon State, with a state-of-the-art refurbished stadium and a reputation as a solid program over the years, becomes one of the powers in the new Pac-12.

Bray may not be the right coach to take them there. He is low-hanging fruit right now, a piñata being pelted from all directions. I don’t think he is going to quit on the job, though, as Gary Andersen did. I would expect Bray to work his tail off to get things turned around. It may not happen, but the coach deserves more than 15 or 16 games to prove he can do the job that he was hired to do.

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