Can’t deny, a healthy Deni gives Blazers a chance

Deni Avdija has been the catalyst to the Trail Blazers’ recent surge in their bid for playoff standings (courtesy Portland Trail Blazers)

During the preseason, a Trail Blazer employee texted me with a question: “How many games you have Portland winning this season?”

“I’m gonna say 44,” I wrote.

“Ha!” responded. “Love the optimism.”

The way things stand now, I may have undersold the local NBA quintet.

A 127-110 win over Miami Thursday night at Moda Center pushed the Blazers past the .500 mark since they were 6-5 on Nov. 12. A 100-88 home loss Friday night to Toronto — with Portland without the services of Deni Avdija — snapped a four-game win streak and dropped the season’s record to 23-23. But the Blazers have won nine of 12 and 11 of 15 since dipping to 12-19 on Dec. 26.

“They are playing extremely good basketball right now,” Miami coach Erik Spoelstra said after watching his team get buried by a pair of 39-point quarters from the Blazers.

Against the Heat, Avdija collected 20 points, seven rebounds and four assists in 18 minutes before departing with back issues that kept him out of three previous games as well as the skirmish with the Raptors the following night. The health of the 6-9, 230-pound point forward is going to be critical to Portland’s success the rest of the regular season and through the playoffs.

That’s right, the playoffs. It is going to happen for the first time since 2021, when Portland fell in six games of the opening round to Denver. The “tank jobs” of seasons past are over. Given good health to Avdija and a reasonably full complement of his teammates, the Blazers are a gimme for the play-in round and have a decent shot at 47 or 48 victories and perhaps a top-six spot in the Western Conference.

Entering Monday’s visit to Boston to begin a three-game road trip, Portland stands ninth in the West, two games behind No. 8 Golden State; the Warriors seem cooked after the season-ending injury to Jimmy Butler. Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Denver and Houston — whom the Blazers beat twice in three days at Moda Center less than three weeks ago — are the class of the West. I don’t see Portland catching them.

With 36 regular-season games to play, the Blazers are 4 1/2 games back of the Lakers, Phoenix and Minnesota, who are tied for fifth and are all saddled with question marks. Any of them could be passed with a strong push down the home stretch of the season by Portland, which has the league’s second-easiest remaining schedule.

One caveat is that the teams immediately behind the Blazers in the West, the Clippers and Dallas, are coming on. Kawhi Leonard and rookie Cooper Flagg have spurred the Clippers and Mavericks, respectively, to get back into the playoff picture. Either team is capable of making a run at Portland before the postseason begins. (Utah, Sacramento and New Orleans are all in tank mode).

When reserves are announced next Sunday for the All-Star Game, Avdija will almost surely be included in the squad of eight international players.

“He is having an All-Star year,” Spoelstra said before Thursday’s game.

The Wizards’ cast-off has become the Blazers’ gold standard, averaging 26 points, 7.1 rebounds and 6.9 rebounds while shooting .471 from the field, .356 from 3-point range and .807 from the free throw line.

The only other players with 26/7/6 stat lines this season: Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic.

The man they call “Turbo” is a human destroyer bulling his way to the basket, converting a layup, drawing a foul or passing off to a teammate at the 3-point line. The only contemporaries I can think of with which to compare in today’s game are Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James. Avdija, who ranks second behind Doncic in free-throw attempts at 9.8 per game, leads the league with 20.3 drives per game.

The Dean of Portland Sports is now on BlueSky.

Deni has 35 20-point games in 42 outings; only Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrone Maxey and Jaylen Brown have more. Even in so-so scoring games, Avdija makes an impact with rebounds and assists. He has had only one sub-par offensive game all season, when he scored 11 points with five rebounds and one assist in 24 minutes in a Nov. 23 loss to OKC, going 4 for 16 from the field and 1 for 8 on triples.

“When he played in Washington, we faced him a lot,” Spoelstra said before Thursday’s game. “They had a lot of injuries, guys in and out. There were several games where he had the kind of usage you are seeing now, and he was a problem then, but it wasn’t on a consistent basis.

“The trade was probably the best thing that ever happened to him. He is leading the league in drives and attacks. It shows you how rugged and physical he is as an attacker. You have to be ready for that force and stand your ground.”

This past week, several members of the media have mentioned him as a strong candidate for the NBA’s Most Improved Player Award. I had been thinking that since before the Christmas break; Avdija averaged 16.9 points, 7.2 rebounds and 3.9 assists a year ago.

The Israeli is the biggest reason for the Blazers’ turnaround of late, but not the only one.

The presence of Donovan Clingan in the middle has been massive, literally and figuratively. The 7-2, 280-pound second-year center leads the NBA in contested shots per game and ranks third in offensive rebounds. He dunks with authority and is the lynchpin to the Blazers ranking second in the league in offensive rebounds and second-chance points.

Second-year center Donovan Clingan has been the anchor in the middle at both ends of the court (courtesy Portland Trail Blazers)

Jrue Holiday has missed all but 18 games this season due to injury, but when he plays he reminds how important a piece he is at both ends of the floor. At 35, the veteran point guard is not the all-league defender he once was, but he is always in the right place. His leadership is invaluable and he is still capable of providing big shots in the clutch.

Shaedan Sharpe’s game has improved primarily with its consistency. There haven’t been as many highs and lows in his fourth NBA season. The high-flying dunk artist has scored 20 points or more 27 times, including nine of the last 10 games — and the other game was a 19-point outing against Golden State. The 6-6 shooting guard has upped his percentages — .455 from the field, .339 from the 3-point line — is getting more rebounds and has improved enough defensively to draw raves from coach Tiago Splitter for his efforts on that side of the floor.

Caleb Love has been a revelation. Undrafted out of Arizona and signed as a two-way player, the 6-4 guard has been a blast of energy off the bench, propelling himself into consideration for the NBA’s All-Rookie team. He shoots capably from beyond the arc (.378), gets after it on defense and plays with the self-assured swagger of a veteran. If Love has a chip on his shoulder, leave it on there.

They ought to name the Moda hustle board for Toumani Camara. He has taken a league-best 50 charges and is up there in floor burns. Plus, he helps out offensively most nights and is a willing complementary piece to a lineup full of shooters.

One of those is Jerami Grant, whose game has been slowed by injuries over the past month but remains a candidate for the NBA’s Sixth Man award, averaging 19.2 points in 29 games. Like Avdija and Sharpe, he is relentless on the drive to the hoop. When he is not available, firepower off the Portland bench suffers.

Robert Williams hasn’t played a lot, but he had some terrific moments in the win over Miami, with four points, 10 rebounds and three blocks in 19 reserve minutes. Injuries have been his nemesis.

Sidy Cissoko is Toumani Camara 2.0. The 6-7 small forward, who played one minute in the first six games, bodies up on defense, moves the ball on offense and has earned a starting role in Splitter’s injury-adjusted lineup. He has taken 25 charges, tied for fourth most in the league.

Kris Murray has made strides in his third NBA campaign, but a back injury has kept him out the past two weeks. And Rayon Rupert has shown some promise during his infrequent forays to the court.

The Blazers entered the season expecting to be among the league leaders in pace. That hasn’t been the case. They rank 23rd in that category. Part of that is the fact that mercurial point guard Scoot Henderson hasn’t yet played a minute as he painstakingly rounds into shape from a preseason hamstring injury. (Team officials say he is very close to a return).

The Blazers are low in shooting percentages, too — 28th in field goal (.450) and last in 3-point (.338) accuracy. They are also last in most turnovers per game (16.9).

But numbers never tell the whole story.

“Sometimes it’s not about X’s and O’s,” Splitter says. “You just have to go out there and play harder.” 

The Blazers have done that most of the time in recent weeks. And they have shot better. Nine of the top 10 players — even Clingan — can hit 3s, and Splitter is encouraging them to shoot more of them. Avdija is the star, but offense can come from just about anyone on a given night.

“We have had guys in and out of the rotation, guys out for extended periods of time, but we have guys coming in who are ready and prepared to do a similar job, to keep the train moving along,” Murray says. “It has been contributions from everybody. That is what’s cool about it. Everyone feels they have had a part in this.”

Grant and Sharpe are the only ones in the regular rotation who have been with the team for more than two seasons. Holiday, Love and Cissoko are in their first year with the club.

“Guys are learning, they are understanding their teammates better, what we want on offense, on defense, and constantly getting better,” Splitter says. “It feels good as a coach to see that developing. Night after night, they are able to show the stuff they are working on in practice, but also learning on the fly during games.”

Over the past three weeks, the Blazers have gone 6-0 in games decided by seven points or fewer.

“Our chemistry is getting better,” Avdija says. “We are just playing better together. We don’t let up on the gas. We know how to close games better. It has been fun to see it all come together.”

Let us also recognize the man in charge. Splitter, the Brazilian who helped San Antonio to the 2014 NBA title as a 6-11 power forward, came to the Blazers during the summer after serving as head coach for Paris Basketball’s run to the French Pro League championship and French Cup title. He was hired as an assistant coach, but when Chauncey Billups was arrested in a federal gambling investigation, was thrust into the role as interim head coach.

Splitter is reserved and understated in media settings and calm on the sidelines during games, but there is no doubt he has the respect of his players. Along with the efforts of assistants Nate Bjorkgren, Patrick St. Andrews, Quinton Crawford, Ronnie Burrell and James Posey, positive steps have been taken.

“Tiago has done a great job given the circumstances,” Murray says. “He has been a great leader right away, very personable with all of the players. He keeps us all together, keeps the chemistry high. It has been a team effort with all the coaches. All good so far.”

“He has been amazing,” Clingan says. “He came into a tough situation, but he came in ready. He has been learning a lot. He makes all of us want to go out there and play hard. His willingness to win, his competitive spirit — he knows what he is doing.”

Portland must climb over several teams to get into the top six spots in the West and avoid the play-in, but that should be the goal. Winning two-thirds of its remaining games — going 24-12 — would get the Blazers to 47 wins, which would give them a shot at sixth. If Avdija misses considerable time with the back injury, that probably won’t be doable. But at least they are in position to talk about it. It has been a long time since we have been there.

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