Blazers-Lakers should be an intriguing matchup. And my pick for the series winner is …
A few observations as the eighth-seeded Trail Blazers take on the challenge of facing the top-seeded L.A. Lakers in a seven-game first-round playoff series to which everyone across NBA circles will be paying attention …
• In a word, watching the Blazers’ nine-game run-up to the NBA playoffs has been fun.
Not because they made it — after 45 years in the sportswriting business, I’ll probably never think like a fan — but because Portland’s seeding games have been so watchable.
And close. The Blazers went 7-2 and never won by more than 10 points. The seven victories came by a total of 34 points, with five of the wins by five points or fewer — one in overtime.
Portland has made the big play in the clutch time and time again. Often it’s been Damian Lillard, but Carmelo Anthony, CJ McCollum, Gary Trent Jr. and Jusuf Nurkic have also knocked down big shots or made plays that turned potential defeat into victory.
Lillard’s pre-eminence, Anthony’s regal presence, Trent’s emergence, McCollum’s fighting through injury and Nurkic’s family grief have provided back stories to the main thread of a suddenly healthy Portland team coming together at the right time after a struggle of a regular season before the COVID break.
• Some pundits, including old friend Charles Barkley, have predicted a Blazers’ upset in the series against the Lakers, which begins at 6 p.m. Tuesday. I would love to pick Portland in this series, and I’ve gone back and forth on it.
The Blazers have several things going for them.
They have the best player in the Bubble in Lillard, a unanimous MVP by 22 media members for his spectacular performance in willing his team into the playoffs. Including the 126-122 play-in win over Memphis on Saturday, Lillard has averaged 36.9 points, 8.6 assists and seven made 3’s per game. He has sunk 85 of 94 free throws (.904) and played like not only the best point guard in the game, but the best player, period.
Portland is the biggest team in the NBA, with 7-footers Nurkic, Zach Collins and Hassan Whiteside in the rotation. The 3-point shot has never had a bigger premium than in today’s game, but the Blazers have proved that an inside presence still matters, too. And with Lillard, McCollum and Trent all knocking down 3’s, no team is equipped with a better inside/outside offense than the Blazers.
And the Blazers will go into the series believing they can win. That’s important.
The Lakers won the season series 2-1, blowing out the Blazers 136-113 in Portland on Dec. 6 as Anthony Davis went for 39 and winning again 128-120 in Portland on Dec. 28. The Blazers returned the favor in Staples Center on Jan. 31, prevailing 127-119 as Lillard exploded for 48 points with 10 assists. Whiteside — now a bench player behind Nurkic — had 30 points, 13 boards and five blocks in that one, making 13 of 14 shots from the field.
• We’ve talked about the positives, but there is an overwhelming negative — defense, always a priority in the postseason. Portland stands No. 28 in the league in defensive rating and has been lame in Orlando, allowing 1,100 points (122.2 per) in its nine games.
I know — doesn’t matter if you outscore the opposition. But Davis and LeBron James are the type who make you pay exponentially for your defensive sins. And there are enough role players around them who can make shots, especially if they’re laying it in or dunking off lob passes.
• The Lakers, who all but had the No. 1 seed in the West wrapped up entering the Bubble, haven’t played well. They’ve gone 3-5, losing by 15 to the Raptors, 19 to the Thunder, 16 to the Rockets and 14 to the Kings. I’m not sure how big a concern that is for Lakers coach Frank Vogel. He’d certainly rather his team go into the postseason on a roll, but the biggest thing is, it’s a relatively healthy roster coming in.
And the Lakers are rested. Davis sat out the Sacramento game. James played 15 minutes.
The normal starting five is Davis and James to go with center Javale McGee and guards Danny Green and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.
The roster is deeper than you think with Kyle Kuzma — the team’s third-best player — Markieff Morris, Dwight Howard, Dion Waiters and Alex Caruso the likely rotation players.
• Portland’s problems are compounded by an ankle sprain to Collins that limited him to seven minutes against Memphis on Saturday. He’s the likely candidate to defend Davis, and there’s really no second-best choice.
If Collins is unavailable for duty Tuesday, does Coach Terry Stotts go small with Trent in the starting five? Does he bring in little-used Wenyen Gabriel, who played some (and hit a big 3) Saturday against the Grizzlies? Does Mario Hezonja — better lately than he’s been all season but still not totally reliable — get the nod?
And who guards James? If Trent isn’t starting, does Anthony get the assignment against his old chum? That one wouldn’t likely go in Portland’s favor. Trent will get his time on James, but LeBron’s size advantage (two inches and 40 pounds) make it a difficult matchup physically for the Blazers’ second-year up-and-comer.
• The Lakers, of course, have the unenviable task of trying to slow down Lillard. The Nets did the best job of defending him since the re-start, double-teaming him as he approached mid-court. Dame still burned the nets for 42 against them.
My guess is the 6-5 Pope starts on Lillard, with plenty of support from nearly every other Laker on the court.
A four-month hiatus re-energized Lillard, who suffered through a midseason groin injury and appeared to be wearing down a bit when the break began in mid-March. The Blazers’ meal ticket seems bionic, but how long can he keep this up? He has averaged a league-high 41.6 minutes in his nine Bubble games. I’d feel better if Stotts had rested him a little more and kept him between 37 and 38.
On the other hand, if the coach had done that, the Blazers might not be playing right now, correct?
• I like Portland’s starting five, and its first eight, better than the Lakers’. If we see the good Nurkic, he’ll be more than a handful for McGee, Howard, or whoever Vogel uses on him. If Trent — who has five games with four or more 3’s since the restart — has his touch, it’s just another weapon the Lakers must deal with.
But the Lakers have two of the five or six best players in the game, along with a defense that ranks No. 3 in the NBA. The Blazers will not likely get as many open shots as they’ve been getting during Bubble time.
Mostly, though, it’s the Portland defense, or lack thereof, that pushes me away from an upset pick and makes me say, Lakers in six.
Readers: what are your thoughts about the opening series? What do you think about the other NBA Playoff games? Share your comments below.
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Watch Game 1 on Tuesday at 6:00 PM on NBC Sports Northwest with Jordan Kent and Lamar Hurd on the call, or on TNT, and you can listen to the game on NBC Sports Northwest Rip City Radio 620 with Travis Demers on the call.
