Beavers look for a sweep and the chance for a deep run

Junior left-hander Ethan Kleinschmit has been thrust into the role of first-game starter with the loss of Dax Whitney for the season

CORVALLIS — What we know for sure about Oregon State baseball: The Beavers will advance to an NCAA Regional after the regular season ends.

What we don’t know: Just about everything else.

Coach Mitch Canham liked most of what he saw in an 8-3 victory over Portland Tuesday night at Goss Stadium, the seventh straight victory in a season in which the Beavers (41-11) have compiled a 40-win season for the fifth straight year.

But Canham doesn’t know what it will take for Oregon State to be chosen as one of 16 Regional sites to be announced on May 25.

The Beavers play host to Air Force (24-24 overall, 15-9 in Mountain West play) in a regular season-ending three-game series that begins Thursday. Must the local nine sweep the Falcons to gain a Regional?

“That might be the case,” Canham told me after OSU’s win over the Pilots.

On Wednesday, Oregon State stood 17th on the RPI list, one spot lower than its place before the win over Portland. (The Pilots moved up three spots to No. 115 after the loss to a highly ranked team. The RPI is like that.) Oregon (36-14) is 20th. Air Force is No. 159.

The 10-person selection committee for the NCAA Tournament, comprised mostly of athletic directors, includes only one member from the West Coast — University of Portland AD Scott Leykam. While Leykam is well aware of Oregon State’s prowess, it would feel better if the region were more well-represented.

Included among the criteria considered by the committee is “Diamond Sports Ranking” (DSR), which is recognized by the respected college baseball website D1baseball.com.

“The DSR is intended to not penalize a team that wins a game just because it is against a lesser opponent,” D1 Baseball’s Aaron Fitt told Jon Warren Monday on Joe Radio in Corvallis. “You might not gain as much as another team does by beating a better game, but you cannot lose points if you win a game.”

D1 Baseball’s DSR ranking has Oregon State 11th and Oregon 23rd.

Even so, the possibility exists that even if Oregon State sweeps Air Force, it might not be among the top 16 teams in RPI.

That wouldn’t mean the Beavers would be out of consideration to host a Regional. Among other criteria: Strength of schedule, Overall record, road record and record against Quad teams (I, II, III or IV). Location of the game site factors into each quadrant, incidentally. For instance, Quad 1 is home games vs. the top 25 teams, neutral site games against teams 1 through 40 or road games against 1 through 60.

There are other variables, including national ranking “and how you finish over the last 15 games or so,” Fitt says. “Also, how you fare on weekend games (when teams’ best starting pitching is used) matters more than the midweek games.”

Oregon State entered the week ranked sixth or seventh in the national polls — all good there. The strength of schedule is ranked No. 55 — better than 10 teams ahead of them on the RPI list, including No. 1 UCLA (65th).

The Beavers are 3-4 against Quad I opponents, fewer games than any of the 16 teams above them have played. (No. 16 Wake Forest, for instance, is 7-14 in Quad 1 games.)

“That’s the one real weakness in Oregon State’s resume,” Fitt tells me in a Wednesday phone conversation. “RPI is borderline, too. … 3-4 against Quad 1 is a blemish, but (the Beavers) are also 9-3 against Quad 2. Combine the two, they are 12-7, which is solid.”

OSU’s road record — 15-2 — is better than any of the top 16 in RPI except UCLA (16-0). That includes wins over Oregon and No. 8 Southern Cal. “That is the reason (the Beavers’) RPI is as high as it is,” Fitt says. “That and the fact that they have won a lot of games.”

While every other team contending for a Regional will be participating in a conference tournament next week, Oregon State will be off. The Beavers will stage exhibitions next Friday and Saturday at Goss to stay sharp for the postseason.

OSU’s hopes to host a Super Regional died with home losses to Texas Rio Grande Valley and Cal State Northridge before the recent win streak began. Fitt, however, believes a Regional host is probable.

“I think Oregon State is a pretty strong bet at this point to host,” he said on Joe Radio. “With their metrics, they could wind up in the 13-to-16 (seed) range.”

Another possibility: With a sweep of the Trojans this week in Los Angeles, Oregon could leapfrog the Beavers in the scramble to host a Regional. It is also possible that the Beavers and Ducks could be placed in the same Regional as No. 1 and 2 seeds. Teams from the same conference cannot be assigned the same Regional, but the two state schools aren’t in the same conference anymore.

“That would match up pretty well from an equity, geographic and fan standpoint,” Fitt says. “From the NCAA’s perspective, pairing teams (in proximity) makes sense. It is better for fans to drive to a Regional than have to fly. There is a    pretty decent chance it could happen.”

Metrics play a role, but final decisions on seedings and Regional placements are subjective, too.

“It winds up being more an art than a science,” Fitt says, “but there is some science behind it.”

Even with ace Dax Whitney on the shelf following UCL elbow surgery, pitching will be Oregon State’s biggest strength in the postseason. OSU and UCLA are tied for the national lead in ERA (3.27) and runs allowed per game (3.7). The Beavers are second nationally with 603 strikeouts (behind Nate Yeskie’s LSU staff with 613) and in strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.51). Granted, a good portion of that was Whitney’s doing, but plenty of other arms contributed to those numbers.

“We had Dax No. 1 on our top 150 pitchers rankings and No. 1 on our draft board for 2027,” Fitt says. Losing him “is a devastating blow. But the way (the Beavers) have covered (his loss) gives me some optimism. Trey Morris has fit nicely into that weekend rotation. They still have a really good 1-2 punch with (Ethan) Kleinschmit and (Eric) Segura and one of the best bullpens in the country.

“Any team would be hurt by losing a talent like Whitney, or any ace in general. If you lose your ace, it stinks, especially when it happens to be the best pitcher in the country. But this is one of the few teams that has enough on the mound (to overcome it).”

Fitt says at the start of the season, D1 Baseball ranked the pitching staffs of Oregon State and North Carolina as tops in the nation.

“I think Oregon State’s is deeper than North Carolina’s,” Fitt says. “What stands out most to me about (the Beavers) is how deep they are on the mound. They can mix and match. They have guys who can beat you with breaking balls. I love the way those pieces are put together.”

Another piece was added Tuesday with the sterling, and shocking, performance by Oregon State’s Connor Mendez. The 6-foot, 215-pound junior right-hander from Pasco, Wash., entered the game with a 9.15 ERA — an average of more than a run per inning. For six innings on Tuesday, Mendez threw to near perfection, facing just one batter over the minimum. From the first inning to the seventh, he retired 17 straight batters.

Mendez’s final numbers through 6 1/3 innings: Two hits, one earned run, one walk, three strikeouts in an economical 70 pitches. Seven of the outs came on flyballs.

“Connor was dominating with his fastball, aggressively in and out of the zone,” pitching coach Rich Dorman told me.

The magical outing came out of nowhere. In his last five starts, Mendez had yielded 19 hits and 18 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings. Two of those games were against the Pilots, who managed eight hits and four earned runs in 6 1/3 innings.

“He prepped really hard for this one,” Dorman said. “His bullpen at Long Beach, he was going through sequences with their hitters. He was prepared.”

Mendez transferred after last season from Linn-Benton CC, where he was almost unhittable, compiling a 4-1 record with an 0.69 ERA in 12 starts and 78 innings. He allowed 29 hits with 23 walks and 77 strikeouts, earning third team JC All-America honors. Mendez was also MVP of the NWAC post-season tournament.

None of that had shown in a Beaver uniform until Tuesday. Mendez may not get another start this season, but he showed he should be considered for middle-relief work the rest of the way.

“It is about him getting confidence — that’s what it is,” Dorman says. ”Once you have confidence and you are throwing with conviction, good things happen. He is starting to settle in, get more comfortable. He attacked tonight.”

The Beavers pounded out 11 hits against Portland, the biggest blow a third-inning three-run triple by Josh Proctor that gave them a 4-0 lead they wouldn’t relinquish. The 6-5, 235-pound freshman left-fielder escaped the throes of an 0-for-28 streak and is 10 for his last 21.

Freshman left fielder Josh Proctor has rebounded from a midseason slump to catch a hot streak as Oregon State prepares for another postseason run (courtesy Dominic Cusimano)

“I like those numbers,” Canham says. “A lot of freshmen go through a stretch of struggling. Sometimes a good re-set does wonders.”

Oregon State’s leading hitter is Ethan Porter, the 6-1, 210-pound freshman who has won the starting first base job in recent weeks. The Huntington Beach, Calif., native is hitting .333 with five doubles and two homers in 69 plate appearances. His on-base percentage is an eye-popping .543.

Porter is the only Beaver hitting better than .300, but the next nine position players are over .265, led by catcher Jacob Galloway (.298) and second baseman AJ Singer (.297), the latter with a team-high 51 RBIs. Designated hitter Bryce Hubbard (.280) leads the team with 10 homers. In his first season as a starter, sophomore third baseman Paul Vasquez is hitting .282 with 10 doubles and seven four-baggers. Center-fielder Easton Talt (.277) has a team-high 25 stolen bases and could become the second Beaver to get to 30 in a season (Travis Bazzana stole 36 in 2023).

Sophomore third baseman Paul Vasquez has been a stalwart with the bat and the glove in his first season as a starter (courtesy Dominic Cusimano)

“I have enjoyed watching this offensive group build each other up and develop a strong identity,” Canham says.

Coach Mitch Canham is hoping the Beavers can sweep Air Force and put themselves in position to host a Regional

The defensive group is beyond solid. The Beavers have made only 28 errors in 52 games and wield a .985 fielding percentage. Singer, a national Gold Glove winner a year ago, has one error in 205 chances and has been a part of 26 double-plays. Vasquez, who has four errors, has been spectacular at third and Tyler Inge (three errors) has been nearly flawless at shortstop.

There is some pressure as Oregon State enters its final regular-season series. The players would love the opportunity to play in front of Beaver Nation in a Regional. The coaches, too. That may require a sweep.

“I like the way the guys are approaching things,” Canham told me. “They are confident in what they are doing. They believe in themselves. I believe in them, too.”

It may require the Beaver pitching to carry the load.

“We are ready,” Dorman says. “Our guys are hungry. They are competing. We have a lot of older guys. The finish line is a powerful thing, and they don’t want it to end. They all want it.”

“It” is Omaha, of course.

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